STAT CHECK – Best offensive season’s ever via Locke Offensive Rating

We had a fun discussion today via twitter @lockedonsports using my Locke Offensive Rating and trying to find the best offensive season ever. The Locke Offensive Rating (LOR) looks at the efficiency by which a player uses a possessions and then rewards or punishes a player on their ability to use numerous efficient or inefficient possessions.

Here are the best seasons we discovered. If you have any suggestions let me know. This is a work in progress

best ever

STAT CHECK – Jazz offensive ranking over last 10 games

Here are all the categories.

TS% – Weighs free throw shooting and three point shooting ((Pts/(FGA+trips to line)*2)).
EFG% – Weights 3 pt shots so 33% from three is a 50% EFG and 50% FG% with no 3′s is also 50% EFG
Cringe/Grin – This evaluates if a player uses a possession above the league average and how much he shots high number grin when he shoots, negative cringe it is a below league average possession
LHM – Is the metric Larry H Miller used to evaluate players, heavily favors big men
Locke – Is my offensive rating. Weighs efficiency and ability to use a possession. 0 – is replacement level – League average is intended to be 10 – 20 is starter -30 is elite -40 is rare and dominating
Active – Is impact on game rating used by former NBA Coach Bob Hill – favors bigs
Jack% – amount of time between times taking a shot
2%, 3%, FT%, to% –% of possessions used doing those items
SO – amount of scoring opportunities (FGA or trip to line) in 40 minutes
pts/so – pts per scoring opportunity
pts/fga – Kevin O’Connor favorite
Pts per Poss – pts per possession turnovers are counted here not in scoring opportunities
Poss – amount of possessions used per game

jazz last 10 games as of 3-25

STAT CHECK – Jazz offensive ratings thru 70 games

Throughout the year I have been posting these updates every 10 games. We missed at game 60 but here are the Jazz offensive numbers through 70 games. The Locke offensive rating is the sort and that gives players credit for efficiency use and the ability to use a possessions. It does not hurt a player for turnovers so it is very favorable to Kanter and not as favorable to Jefferson who doesn’t turn the ball over. The items shaded in red are below league average.

Here are all the categories.

TS% – Weighs free throw shooting and three point shooting ((Pts/(FGA+trips to line)*2)).
EFG% – Weights 3 pt shots so 33% from three is a 50% EFG and 50% FG% with no 3′s is also 50% EFG
Cringe/Grin – This evaluates if a player uses a possession above the league average and how much he shots high number grin when he shoots, negative cringe it is a below league average possession
LHM – Is the metric Larry H Miller used to evaluate players, heavily favors big men
Locke – Is my offensive rating. Weighs efficiency and ability to use a possession. 0 – is replacement level – League average is intended to be 10 – 20 is starter -30 is elite -40 is rare and dominating
Active – Is impact on game rating used by former NBA Coach Bob Hill – favors bigs
Jack% – amount of time between times taking a shot
2%, 3%, FT%, to% –% of possessions used doing those items
SO – amount of scoring opportunities (FGA or trip to line) in 40 minutes
pts/so – pts per scoring opportunity
pts/fga – Kevin O’Connor favorite
Pts per Poss – pts per possession turnovers are counted here not in scoring opportunities
Poss – amount of possessions used per game

jazz after 70 games

STAT CHECK – Jazz playing pairs

This looks at how the Jazz play based on what two man combos are on the floor. While, I find this interesting you must be careful with too many definitive statements based on these numbers since the statistical noise is very high.

I have excluded all pairs that haven’t played 50 minutes together and any line-up with Evans or Murphy.

BEST PLAYING PAIRS (Off Eff-Def Eff)
1. Marvin- DeMarre (110.3-81.1)
2. Burks – Millsap (117.2-88.6)
3. Burks – Foye (117-96.4)
4. HayWard – Tinsley (111.4-95.1)
5. DeMarre – Millsap (113.2-101)

BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYING PAIRS (off rat – def rat)
1. Burks-Millsap (117.2-88.6)
2. Burks-Foye (117-96.4)
3. Burks- Jefferson (116.2-104.7)
4. Carroll -Foye (114.3-102.4)
5. Carroll – Millsap (113.2-101)

BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYING PAIRS
(off rtg – def rtg)
1. Carroll -Marvin (110.3-81.1)
2. Burks – Millsap (117.2-88.6)
3. Kanter – Marvin (91.3-93)
4. Carroll – Kanter (102.5-93.6)
5. Kanter – Millsap (105 – 94.9)

WORST 5 PLAYING PAIRS
1. Watson – Marvin (100.6-114)
2. Hayward – Watson (99.2-109.4)
3. Favors – Mo Williams (102.8-112.4)
4. Kanter – Mo Williams (90.2-98.9)
5. Foye – Hayward (102.9-111.6)

STAT CHECK – Locke offensive numbers at game 50 and last 10

Throughout the year I will post this. Here are the definitions. The top line is the league average so you can put everything in context. Last time we did was at 40 games now at 50 games we revisit.

TS% – Weighs free throw shooting and three point shooting ((Pts/(FGA+trips to line)*2)).
EFG% – Weights 3 pt shots so 33% from three is a 50% EFG and 50% FG% with no 3′s is also 50% EFG
Cringe/Grin – This evaluates if a player uses a possession above the league average and how much he shots high number grin when he shoots, negative cringe it is a below league average possession
LHM – Is the metric Larry H Miller used to evaluate players, heavily favors big men
Locke – Is my offensive rating. Weighs efficiency and ability to use a possession. 0 – is replacement level – League average is intended to be 10 – 20 is starter -30 is elite -40 is rare and dominating
Active – Is impact on game rating used by former NBA Coach Bob Hill – favors bigs
Jack% – amount of time between times taking a shot
2%, 3%, FT%, to% –% of possessions used doing those items
SO – amount of scoring opportunities (FGA or trip to line) in 40 minutes
pts/so – pts per scoring opportunity
pts/fga – Kevin O’Connor favorite
Pts per Poss – pts per possession turnovers are counted here not in scoring opportunities
Poss – amount of possessions used per game

JAZZ AT 50 GAMES
JAZZ OFFENSE AT GAME 50

Last time we looked at the Jazz they were at the 40 game mark. Here is what they have done the last 10 games.

jazz players games 41-50

STAT CHECK – Looking at Jazz in 10 game spans

Utah Jazz have played 50 games this season. Allowing us to look at the team in 10 spans of the season.

OFFENSE BY 10 GAME PERIODS
jazz offense in 10 game stretches

DEFENSE BY 10 GAME PERIODS
jazz defense in 10 game stretches

Digging deeper let’s look at the advanced metrics which tell a much more accurate story. First graph is how they did second graph is how they rank.

ADVANCED METRICS
advanced metrics by 10 games

RANKING BY ADVANCED METRICS
advanced metrics by ranking

STAT CHECK – Looking a Utah Jazz playing pairs

Line-ups groupings are a new area of stats research. Some of it can be useful but you also need to be very careful because of the amount of statistical noise in these numbers. Who they are playing with, who they are playing against, time of game , etc all have an impact. Overall, I am not sure I would want my head coach making decision on these numbers.
None the less here is a look at the Jazz best and worst groups of 2 man line-ups.

Jazz 2 man line-ups
The Jazz have 60 two man groups that have played at least 100 minutes on the floor together. Those are the only ones we are looking at for these numbers

3 BEST 2 MAN GROUPS
1. Alec Burks/Paul Millsap
2. Alec Burks/Al Jefferson
3. Gordon Hayward/Jamaal Tinsley

3 WORST 2 MAN GROUPS
1. Earl Watson/ Gordon Hayward
2. Earl Watson/Derrick Favors
3. Alec Burks/Derrick Favors

3 BEST OFFENSIVE 2 MAN GROUPS
1. Alec Burks/Al Jefferson
2. Alec Burks/Paul Millsap
3. Alec Burks/Randy Foye
Note: This is really one 5 man group that has played well with Gordon Hayward as well.

3 WORST OFFENSIVE 2 MAN GROUPS
1. Alec Burks/Derrick Favors
2. Earl Watson/Derrick Favors
3. Earl Watson/Gordon Hayward

3 BEST DEFENSVIE 2 MAN GROUPS
1. Alec Burks/Paul Millsap
2. DeMarre Carroll/Enes Kanter
3. Jamaal Tinsley/Gordon Hayward

3 WORST DEFENSIVE 2 MAN GROUPS
1. Earl Watson/Al Jefferson
2. Derrick Favors/Al Jefferson
3. Mo Williams/Derrick Favors
4. Randy Foye/Gordon Hayward

Here are a few other notes. Looking at just the top 30 most used 2 man groups all having played at least 300 minutes together might have more of a signal and less noise

BEST OVERALL – Tinsley/Hawyard then Carroll/Kanter then Gordon/Marvin tied with Carroll/Hayward
WORST OVERALL: Watson/Hayward and Watson/Favors
BEST OFFENSE: Tinsley/Hayward then Hayward/Jefferson and Hayward/Milsap
WORST OFFENSE: Watson/Favors and Watson Hayward then Hayward/Favors
BEST DEFENSE: Carroll/Kanter and Tinsley/Hayward then Hayward/Kanter
WORST DEFENSE: Favors/Jefferson then Mo/Foye and Foye/Jefferson

What did you learn from this – Let me know at Locked on Sports at Google Communities