STAT CHECK – Using Goldsberry formula who on last year’s Jazz was best shooter

Today Kirk Goldsberry did an interesting piece at Grantland. The premise was to figure out who is  the best shooter in the NBA, using a metric better than field goal %.   The thesis was De Andre Jordan has a better FG% than LeBron, but it is because of the lack of variance in his shot selection.

Goldsberry plotted every shot of every player and compared what their projected points scored should be compared to the league average based on shot location.

Inspired by Goldsberry work today I built a similar chart  on last year’s Jazz team.  I don’t have access to anywhere near the data that Goldsberry does.   Instead, I broke all shots into 5 locations (rim, 3 to 9 feet, 10 to 15 feet, 16 to 23 and 3 pointers) and compared how players performed based on the league average at those locations.

Looking at the charts below you will see the Expected Pts Total, this is the amount of points a player who shot average from the 5 locations would score.  Next is what the player actually scored.  This is followed by the difference and then finally equalizing for shot attempts we have the Shot Score (Goldsberry term) for every 100 shots.  If a player is positive this is the amount of points he would score above the league average of his shots in 100 shots and negative is the opposite

expected point chart 1

In this next chart I added some other data.  Goldsberry did nothing to incorporate free throw shooting.  I added a section that counts a players performance at the free throw line.

expected point chart 2

There are some flaws in this research.  Players who choose to shot a large amount of shots from inefficient spots on the floor, but shoot those shots at a higher percentage than league average are rewarded.  However, Goldsberry premise was he was trying to discover the league’s best shooter.

Points per shot attempt or pts per scoring opportunity (FGA and FT trips) are much better at evaluating a player’s offensive performance because they reward getting to the line and shooting three’s.

Therefore, in this chart  I have added pts per shot and pts per scoring opportunity

expected point chart 3

What I discovered is Al Jefferson is truly one of the best shooters in the game.  The shots he takes are very inefficient yet he does it well.  His shooting was the best on the team last year.   However, the majority of shots were very inefficient s and therefore his points per shot and points per scoring opportunity was not very good.

In contrast, Hayward has a terrific points per scoring opportunity, but this is based on shooting efficient shots and going to the line.  It turns out Hayward is not an elite shooter.  His shot score per 100 shots was only .99 pts above league average.

Of the current other 3 young Jazz players this shows how far Derrick Favors needs to go to develop his offensive game as he was considerably below the league average.  Alec Burks did not have a good offensive year last year, farther below average than Derrick Favors.

On the other hand, Enes Kanter graded out as the 2nd best shooter on the Jazz roster (excluding Jeremy “small sample size” Evans).  If Kanter continues his development he may be the offensive scorer of this group.

Now this leads to the next research are you better off having good shooters or just shooters who shoot from the “good”(efficient) spots on the floor?

 

STAT CHECK – Best offensive season’s ever via Locke Offensive Rating

We had a fun discussion today via twitter @lockedonsports using my Locke Offensive Rating and trying to find the best offensive season ever. The Locke Offensive Rating (LOR) looks at the efficiency by which a player uses a possessions and then rewards or punishes a player on their ability to use numerous efficient or inefficient possessions.

Here are the best seasons we discovered. If you have any suggestions let me know. This is a work in progress

best ever

STAT CHECK – Jazz offensive ranking over last 10 games

Here are all the categories.

TS% – Weighs free throw shooting and three point shooting ((Pts/(FGA+trips to line)*2)).
EFG% – Weights 3 pt shots so 33% from three is a 50% EFG and 50% FG% with no 3′s is also 50% EFG
Cringe/Grin – This evaluates if a player uses a possession above the league average and how much he shots high number grin when he shoots, negative cringe it is a below league average possession
LHM – Is the metric Larry H Miller used to evaluate players, heavily favors big men
Locke – Is my offensive rating. Weighs efficiency and ability to use a possession. 0 – is replacement level – League average is intended to be 10 – 20 is starter -30 is elite -40 is rare and dominating
Active – Is impact on game rating used by former NBA Coach Bob Hill – favors bigs
Jack% – amount of time between times taking a shot
2%, 3%, FT%, to% –% of possessions used doing those items
SO – amount of scoring opportunities (FGA or trip to line) in 40 minutes
pts/so – pts per scoring opportunity
pts/fga – Kevin O’Connor favorite
Pts per Poss – pts per possession turnovers are counted here not in scoring opportunities
Poss – amount of possessions used per game

jazz last 10 games as of 3-25

STAT CHECK – Jazz offensive ratings thru 70 games

Throughout the year I have been posting these updates every 10 games. We missed at game 60 but here are the Jazz offensive numbers through 70 games. The Locke offensive rating is the sort and that gives players credit for efficiency use and the ability to use a possessions. It does not hurt a player for turnovers so it is very favorable to Kanter and not as favorable to Jefferson who doesn’t turn the ball over. The items shaded in red are below league average.

Here are all the categories.

TS% – Weighs free throw shooting and three point shooting ((Pts/(FGA+trips to line)*2)).
EFG% – Weights 3 pt shots so 33% from three is a 50% EFG and 50% FG% with no 3′s is also 50% EFG
Cringe/Grin – This evaluates if a player uses a possession above the league average and how much he shots high number grin when he shoots, negative cringe it is a below league average possession
LHM – Is the metric Larry H Miller used to evaluate players, heavily favors big men
Locke – Is my offensive rating. Weighs efficiency and ability to use a possession. 0 – is replacement level – League average is intended to be 10 – 20 is starter -30 is elite -40 is rare and dominating
Active – Is impact on game rating used by former NBA Coach Bob Hill – favors bigs
Jack% – amount of time between times taking a shot
2%, 3%, FT%, to% –% of possessions used doing those items
SO – amount of scoring opportunities (FGA or trip to line) in 40 minutes
pts/so – pts per scoring opportunity
pts/fga – Kevin O’Connor favorite
Pts per Poss – pts per possession turnovers are counted here not in scoring opportunities
Poss – amount of possessions used per game

jazz after 70 games