After a disappointing summer league and the King’s signing of Aaron Brooks it has become clear that Jimmer Fredette’s future in Sacramento is gloomy.
The Jazz and now the Thunder have both been mentioned in potential deals for Jimmer. Around the league, I have also heard Dallas is interested.
All of us recall the incredible junior and senior seasons Jimmer had at BYU and his top 10 position in the NBA draft and naturally assume their is high value in acquiring Fredette.
However, traditionally NBA players after the age of 22 don’t have big improvements in their game.
Ignoring the awesome collegiate career of Fredette I did some work on basketball reference to see who else has had a similar start to their career and gone on for prosperous NBA career. The answer – no one.
Here is the first search I did for Fredette. The player had to be 6’0 to 6’5 and by the age of 22 shot above 35% from three, below 40% from the field and played less than 1,500 minutes. Note on the minutes, Jimmer played 1135 minutes last year but had the season been 82 games he would have been near 1,500 so that seemed like a more fair number.
25 players met this criteria and none of them went on to a NBA career. More stunning, none of them even hung around the league as a long time reserve player. Worth noting, none of them were 1st round draft picks with the resume of Jimmer so Jimmer will get more chances.
I did the search again, leaving out the negative stat of below 40% shooting. Now the players are 6’0 to 6’5 and by the age of 22 played fewer than 1,5000 minutes but hit better than 35% from three.
This was stunning. Again none of these players go onto a NBA career. 44 players hit this entire list not one had an NBA career of any length.
This lead to one more search, I widened the player search to players 6’0 to 6’8. The result was 57 players. Again, none of them had an NBA career.
Continuing the search to find some other data, I just search players 22 or older who played under 1,500 minutes — JEREMY LIN !!!!!
What becomes clear is most older player who enter the league at 22 or older need to show an impact immediately. Jimmer was unable to do that in Sacramento.
Since 1980, no player who played below 1,500 minutes at the ago of 22 has ever made an impact in the NBA. Will Jimmer be the first? More importantly, what are teams really trading for?