PART 3 – Year via circumstances
This is the look at Al Jefferson via circumstances, home v. road, good teams v. bad teams, east v. west and time period of the game.
Here are the observations
• Al was considerably better at home than on the road this year. His Locke offensive ranking at home was 13.7 and on the road was -1.4. His points per scoring opportunity (league average is 1.05) was 1.09 at home and .99 on the road. This is a huge discrepancy. He used the same amount of possession home v. road (19.53 to 19.43) but was nowhere near as productive.
• No surprise Al’s performance often dictated how the team did. In Wins Al’s pts per scoring attempt was 1.11 and in losses it was .96. In losses he goes to the line just 5.7% of the possession he uses.
• An argument can be made statistically the more people see Al the less well he does. He has his lowest rate of productivity against his division with a Locke rating of -6.6 (which is awful) then against the conference he is (-.6) and against the East he tears it up. Pts per scoring opportunity was .95 v. division (league average is 1.05) v. the conference was 1.00. These are really low. Against the Eastern Conference his pts per scoring opportunity was 1.15 which is great.
• Against above .500 teams Al’s TS% (pts/FGA+(.44*FTA))*2) was 48% and against below .500 teams was 58%. Digging deeper this is very interesting. He used just 5% of his possessions to go to the line against above .500 teams but against below .500 teams he went to line 9% of the time. Simpler number Al shots 54% against teams below .500 and 46% against teams above .500.
• His Locke offensive ranking against the East is 23.9 and against below .500 teams in 21.8. These are very very high level production
• For the second straight year Al was better after the all-star break. Locke rating pre all-star 2.9 and post all-star 8.4.
• Al’ best month was March – he went to the line more 7% of his possessions and was up to a very impressive 1.11 pts per scoring opportunity – his other months were 1.03,1.02 and 1.01.
• In April he turned the ball over just 1.7% of his possessions – AWESOME
• Al didn’t play well on back to backs – his TS% was just .49% whereas with 1 day rest it was 53% and 2 days rest it was 57%.
• Al was far better in the first half and games than the second half. Hhe shot 54% in 1st half of game and just 45% in 2nd half of games. He did go to the line more in the 2nd half of games. He used 9 possessions in each half.
• No player’s numbers are as good in clutch situations. Al averaged .89 pts per scoring opportunity in the clutch (5 mins left within 6 pts) – he goes to the line just 5% of those possessions and hits just 44% of his shots. Al hit just 5 of 12 free throws in the clutch this season.
• The teams Al had the most success against – Charlotte, Cleveland, Detroit and Washington. The teams he struggled against are Indiana, Lakers, Miami and Portland.